ACT Research Seminar Recap Highlights Demand and Economic Pressures

The commercial vehicle industry is at a pivotal moment, as ongoing economic pressures and shifting demands reshape its landscape. The recent ACT Research seminar titled "Market Vitals: The Current & Future Health of the Industry" sheds light on these dynamics, offering insights that are crucial for stakeholders navigating this evolving terrain. In this article, we delve into the key takeaways from the event, focusing on the perspectives of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and economists.

Day 1: Insights from OEMs and Fleets

The first day of the seminar featured a panel of influential OEM leaders, including Sean Kenney, CEO of Hyundai Translead; Charles Chilton, VP and GM of IC Bus at International Motors; and T.J. Reed, President and CEO of Daimler Truck Specialty Vehicles. A significant theme that emerged from the discussions was the pervasive uncertainty in the market, affecting all segments of the industry.

Panelists highlighted several critical challenges that OEMs are currently facing, including:

• Tariff Variations: Fluctuating tariffs continue to complicate the balance of supply and demand.
• Policy Changes: New regulations can alter production strategies significantly.
• Supply Chain Issues: Ongoing disruptions necessitate meticulous management of production capabilities.

During a compelling fireside chat, Paul Rosa, Senior VP of Procurement and Fleet Planning at Penske Truck Leasing, and Steve Tam, VP and Analyst at ACT Research, delved into the concept of pent-up demand. Many fleets are currently delaying equipment purchases, awaiting a more stable economic and policy environment. This delay has resulted in a backlog of vehicles overdue for replacement, raising concerns about readiness when market conditions improve.

Experts cautioned that when demand eventually rebounds, both suppliers and OEMs may struggle to scale quickly, potentially leading to a surge similar to the one witnessed in 2021-22. This situation underscores the importance of proactive planning and flexibility in production strategies.

Day 2: Analyzing Economic Trends and Market Conditions

The second day of the seminar shifted focus to the broader economic and market outlook. A panel featuring esteemed economists such as David Teolis, Chief Economist at ACT Research; Bob Costello, Chief Economist and SVP at the American Trucking Associations; and Jordan Vickers, VP and Chief Economist at Eaton, provided a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the economy.

Moderated by Jim Meil, Principal and Industry Analyst at ACT Research, the panel highlighted several key economic indicators:

• Weak Growth: Economic growth remains tepid, indicating a challenging landscape for businesses.
• Rising Inflation: Inflationary pressures are affecting costs across the supply chain.
• Uneven Job Gains: Employment recovery is not uniform across sectors, complicating demand forecasting.

Furthermore, the panelists discussed the prolonged freight recession and the early impacts of newly implemented tariffs, which are expected to further complicate market dynamics. ACT Research analysts elaborated on the outlook for heavy-duty trucks, freight, and trailers, noting that:

• Production and labor cuts are becoming a norm.
• Regulatory uncertainty continues to pose challenges.
• Trade policy headwinds are expected to impact forecasts negatively.

As a result of these factors, Class 8 and trailer build forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward. An ACT survey conducted in August revealed that a staggering 80% of for-hire fleets reported no plans to purchase trailers in the current or upcoming year. While demand for trailers is weak at present, the experts emphasized that pent-up demand is still building, suggesting a potential future surge in orders.

Looking Ahead: Future of the Industry

ACT Research is committed to providing ongoing insights into the commercial vehicle market, hosting two Market Vitals seminars each year for subscribers of its “N.A. CV OUTLOOK” and “Freight Forecast: U.S. Rate and Volume OUTLOOK.” The next seminar is scheduled for February 18-19, 2026, promising to deliver further valuable insights and updates on the industry.

With the market in a state of flux, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable. As the industry navigates these tumultuous waters, being informed about economic trends and potential market shifts will be essential for making strategic decisions. For those interested in a deeper understanding of these dynamics, consider watching this insightful video on the subject:

In conclusion, staying informed about market conditions, understanding the implications of economic changes, and recognizing the buildup of demand are crucial for all players in the commercial vehicle industry. The insights shared during the ACT Research seminar will undoubtedly serve as a valuable resource as the industry moves forward.

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