FTR July 2025 Class 8 Orders Preliminary Report for North America

As the commercial trucking industry navigates a landscape marked by economic uncertainty, shifts in demand, and regulatory changes, the latest data reveals significant trends in Class 8 orders across North America. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders looking to adapt and thrive in this competitive sector.

In July 2025, preliminary Class 8 orders reached 12,700 units, signaling a 42% increase from the previous month. However, the year-over-year comparison reveals a decline of 7%. This ongoing fluctuation highlights a cautious approach among fleets amidst various external pressures, including trade tensions and economic instability.

Recent Trends in Class 8 Orders

The July figures indicate a complex scenario for the Class 8 trucking market. While the month-over-month growth seems promising, it is essential to contextualize it within a broader historical framework:

• **Month-over-Month Growth:** The rise of 42% from June 2025 reflects a seasonal rebound, suggesting that fleets may be preparing for increased freight activity.
• **Year-over-Year Decline:** Despite the monthly improvement, the 7% drop from July 2024 underscores persistent challenges in the market.
• **Historical Context:** The current orders are significantly below the 10-year average of 19,974 units for July, indicating ongoing caution among fleet operators.

This discrepancy between month-over-month growth and year-over-year decline raises questions about the sustainability of this upward trend and the factors contributing to it.

Market Segmentation: Vocational vs. On-Highway

A deeper dive into market segments reveals that vocational and on-highway orders have shown different trajectories:

• **Vocational Segment:** This segment has experienced improvement, indicating growth in specialized applications such as construction and waste management.
• **On-Highway Segment:** Primarily driven by long-haul operations, this market segment is experiencing notable vulnerabilities. Carriers focused on longer distances are particularly affected by economic fluctuations and fuel prices.

For the 2025 order cycle, spanning from September 2024 to July 2025, total orders were down 15% year-over-year, with a cumulative total of 254,349 units ordered. This data highlights a significant shift in purchasing behavior among fleet operators.

Insights from Industry Analysts

Analysts play a vital role in interpreting market data and providing insights into the underlying factors influencing Class 8 orders. Dan Moyer, a senior analyst at FTR, emphasized the impact of several key issues:

• **Tariff Volatility:** Ongoing tariff fluctuations are creating uncertainty in the market, particularly concerning imports of Class 4-8 trucks and components.
• **Economic Sluggishness:** The overall sluggishness in the truck freight market is contributing to a significant year-to-date decline of 30% in net orders compared to the previous year.
• **Regulatory Changes:** Potential revisions to the Environmental Protection Agency's NOx emissions standards for 2027 add another layer of complexity, causing fleets to hesitate before making new investments.

These insights illustrate how external factors are shaping the decision-making processes of fleet operators, leading many to delay investments in new commercial vehicles.

The Importance of Inventory Levels

Another critical aspect affecting the Class 8 market is the high inventory levels. Record-high inventories continue to place downward pressure on production rates:

• **Excess Inventory:** Many manufacturers are grappling with surplus stock, which can lead to decreased production rates as companies adjust to shifting demand.
• **Impact on Production:** High inventory levels can create a cycle of reduced orders, further exacerbating the decline in production and potentially leading to layoffs or reduced hours for workers in the industry.
• **Strategic Adjustments:** Companies may need to rethink their supply chain strategies to align production more closely with market demand.

Future Projections and Strategic Considerations

As the commercial truck market continues to evolve, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable. Looking ahead, several factors will likely shape the future of Class 8 orders:

• **Adoption of Technology:** Fleets that invest in technology such as telematics and automation may gain a competitive edge by improving efficiency and reducing operational costs.
• **Environmental Standards Compliance:** As regulations tighten, compliance with environmental standards will be essential for manufacturers and fleets alike.
• **Economic Recovery:** A stable economic environment could lead to increased freight demand, potentially driving a rebound in Class 8 orders.

To elaborate on the ongoing trends in the trucking industry, you can check out this insightful video that discusses the current state of the market:

Concluding Thoughts

In summary, while July 2025 showed a month-over-month increase in Class 8 orders, the overall landscape remains complex due to various market challenges. Caution prevails as fleets navigate economic uncertainties, tariff fluctuations, and regulatory changes. As the industry adapts, understanding these dynamics will be essential for making informed decisions moving forward.

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