Q2 2025 Cargo Theft Analysis and Future Outlook

The ongoing issue of cargo theft continues to escalate, posing significant challenges for the logistics and transportation sectors. According to Overhaul's Q2 2025 U.S. Cargo Theft Report, theft incidents are on the rise, reflecting a disturbing trend that demands urgent attention from fleet managers and business owners alike. Understanding the dynamics of this situation is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate risks.

In this article, we delve into the current landscape of cargo theft, examining where it is most prevalent, the tactics employed by thieves, and what fleet managers can do to protect their assets.

Index

Where theft clustered in Q2
Target products and shifting risks
Methods and locations of theft
What can fleet managers do to combat theft?
Projections for the rest of 2025

Where theft clustered in Q2

Overhaul's spatial analysis reveals that the quadrant encompassing Southern California was responsible for a staggering 40% of all cargo theft incidents reported in the second quarter. This area has re-emerged as a hotspot for thefts, with a narrow margin ahead of the neighboring quadrant that includes Dallas and Memphis, which accounted for 38% of incidents. The remaining thefts were distributed among other quadrants, with 16% and 6% respectively.

State-wise, the breakdown of incidents is as follows:

California: 38%
Texas: 18%
Tennessee: 15%
Pennsylvania: 10%
Illinois: 7%

The product mix varies by state as well. In California, the leading categories were Food and Drinks at 20%, Electronics at 17%, and Home and Garden at 13%. Conversely, Texas saw Electronics and Metals dominate with 45% and 36%, respectively.

Target products and shifting risks

The most targeted product groups in Q2 were Electronics and Food and Drinks, each constituting 16% of thefts, while Home and Garden products accounted for 13%. Within the Electronics category, mixed loads topped the charts at 29%, followed by:

Batteries and panels: 18%
Computers: 14%
Televisions and displays: 11%

In the Food and Drinks category, coffee, energy drinks, and sports drinks represented 21% of incidents, with produce and snack items like cookies and candies each making up 15% of thefts.

Significantly, some product categories saw sharp increases in theft rates. Metals reported the largest surge, with a staggering 92% increase from Q1 2025 and 84% compared to Q2 2024. Cash thefts also rose dramatically, increasing by 51% from Q1 and 236% compared to the same period in 2024, with many incidents involving armored trucks. However, declines were noted in the Personal Care, Pharmaceuticals, and Tobacco sectors during the same periods.

Methods and locations of theft

When it comes to the methods employed by thieves, pilferage remains the most common, accounting for 52% of incidents in Q2. Other methods include:

Theft of full truckloads: 22%
Facility theft: 14%
Deceptive pickups: 7%
Hijackings: 3%
Last-mile courier thefts: 2%

In terms of targeted locations, warehouses and distribution centers emerged as the most frequently hit sites, making up 37% of specified incidents. Other significant locations included:

Truck stops and fuel stations: 21%
Unsecured parking: 13%
Company yards: 8%
In-transit thefts: 7%
Rail thefts: 7%

Interestingly, the timing of thefts has shifted, with a more even distribution observed throughout the week. Mondays and Fridays each accounted for 17% of incidents, while Wednesdays saw 18% and Tuesdays 16%. Early morning hours from midnight to 6 a.m. represented 27% of thefts, indicating that both early and daytime hours are prime for such activities.

What can fleet managers do to combat theft?

Given the rising threat of cargo theft, Overhaul categorizes the current risk level as high and increasing. This assessment is attributed to the growing organization and sophistication of criminal groups targeting freight, coupled with the rising values of stolen goods.

To mitigate risks, fleet managers are encouraged to take proactive steps, including:

Tightening identity and business verification protocols before releasing loads.
Conducting thorough vetting of carriers and drivers, particularly for shipments originating in Southern California and involving high-risk products like Electronics.
Capturing comprehensive documentation at the point of origin, such as:

Photos of the driver and their CDL.
Images of the sealed trailer with visible seal numbers.
Identification of equipment and plates.
Details from the bill of lading.

To enhance shipment visibility, fleet managers should also consider integrating tracking technologies into both the power unit and cargo area. This can help flag any deviations from planned routes, unauthorized stops, and instances of cargo separation.

Projections for the rest of 2025

Looking ahead, Overhaul predicts at least a 15% increase in cargo theft incidents for the second half of 2025. This forecast is driven by anticipated growth in economic and logistics activity as the year progresses, mirroring trends observed in 2023 and 2024.

As transportation companies navigate these uncertain waters, preparedness and vigilance will be key in protecting their assets and minimizing losses in the face of rising theft rates.

For further insights into cargo theft trends and preventive strategies, you can watch this informative video: