U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Shows National Truck Freight Growth Q2 2025

The U.S. truck freight market is experiencing a notable recovery, signaling a shift after a prolonged period of stagnation. As businesses adapt to changing economic conditions, understanding the factors driving this resurgence becomes essential for logistics and transportation professionals alike.

According to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for the second quarter of 2025, national shipment volumes have increased by 2.4%, while spending has risen by 1.2% compared to the previous quarter. This marks a significant milestone as it represents the first growth in both metrics on a quarter-to-quarter basis in three years.

Market Dynamics and Insights from Industry Leaders

Experts in the freight industry are cautiously optimistic about the current market conditions. Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at U.S. Bank, comments, “While the national year-over-year (Y/Y) metrics remain down, the second quarter’s sequential growth is a welcome shift after years of contraction.” Despite this positive news, Holland cautions that tariff-related volatility could still impact trucking activity, making it premature to declare a definitive market turnaround.

In comparison to the same period last year, national shipments have decreased by 9.8%, and spending has fallen by 4.9%. However, this decline is the smallest observed since Q3 2023, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market.

Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, notes, “With unevenness in key freight drivers like manufacturing, housing, and port activity, the quarter-over-quarter gains are encouraging. There are signs the industry is beginning to rebalance, even if the road ahead remains bumpy.” This sentiment reflects the complexities of the market, where multiple factors can influence performance.

Regional Performance and Key Data Highlights

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Q2 2025 provides valuable insights into freight shipment and spending changes based on transactions processed through its Freight Payment platform, which manages an impressive $43 billion in freight payments annually. This index is crucial for stakeholders in the logistics sector as it helps identify trends and forecast future developments.

National Shipment Metrics

• Quarterly Growth: +2.4%
• Year-over-Year Decline: -9.8%

National Spending Metrics

• Quarterly Growth: +1.2%
• Year-over-Year Decline: -4.9%

Regional Analysis of Freight Performance

Breaking down the data regionally reveals varied performance across the United States:

• West:
  • Freight volumes rose for the second consecutive quarter, driven by increased port activity and inventory movements.
  • Shipments grew by 1.3% (Y/Y +1.3%).
  • Spending decreased by 0.7% (Y/Y +2.3%).
• Southwest:
  • This region posted the largest sequential shipment gain, although volumes remain significantly lower than last year.
  • Shipments increased by 6.7% (Y/Y -26.0%).
  • Spending declined by 3.6% (Y/Y +3.6%).
• Midwest:
  • Freight activity improved sequentially, marking the largest quarterly increase in three years.
  • Shipments rose by 2.6% (Y/Y -9.2%).
  • Spending increased by 2.2% (Y/Y -7.9%).
• Northeast:
  • The Northeast led in both Y/Y shipment and spending growth, buoyed by robust housing starts and auto sales.
  • Shipments grew by 3.3% (Y/Y +2.7%).
  • Spending increased by 1.3% (Y/Y +3.7%).
• Southeast:
  • The slight sequential increase in volume marked only the second rise since Q3 2021, affected by weak manufacturing and consumer activity.
  • Shipments improved by 0.1% (Y/Y -10.8%).
  • Spending rose by 3.8% (Y/Y -12.9%).

Understanding the Freight Payment Index

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Q2 2025 employs seasonally and calendar-adjusted transaction data from various domestic freight modes, including truckload and less-than-truckload shipping. This comprehensive approach allows for a clearer understanding of trends and fluctuations within the market.

Insights derived from the index are invaluable for shippers and carriers, providing them with the analytical tools necessary to navigate market dynamics. By keeping a pulse on these trends, stakeholders can make informed decisions that align with current and future market conditions.

For those interested in a more in-depth analysis of the freight market recovery and its implications, consider watching the insightful video below, which discusses the intricacies of the Q2 outlook:

As the freight industry continues to evolve, staying informed about these developments will be crucial for optimizing logistics strategies and enhancing operational efficiency. The data gleaned from the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index serves as a foundation for understanding the current landscape and anticipating future shifts in the market.

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